Research Assessment #9

Name: Milind Renjit

Date: 11/14/18

Subject: Shortage of Cardiothoracic Surgeons Is Likely by 2020

Teacher: Mrs. Brittain

MLA citation:  

​

Grover, Atul, et al. “Shortage of Cardiothoracic Surgeons Is Likely by 2020.” Circulation, vol. 120, no. 6, 2009, pp. 488–494., doi:10.1161/circulationaha.108.776278.

​

Assessment:

​

The future of cardiothoracic surgery is showing to be very promising. Innovation in science is introducing a multitude of amazing technologies and procedures like 3D printing and minimally invasive surgeries into more hospitals every day. However, the current state of the field is at an all-time low and is seen going on a downward trend for the foreseeable future. Amazingly this is not in reference to the medicine involved but in reference to the physical number of practicing cardiothoracic surgeons left in America today. In an article called, “Shortage of Cardiothoracic Surgeons Is Likely by 2020,” the authors Dr. Atul Grover, Karyn Gorman,Timothy M. Dall, Dr. Richard Jonas, Dr. Bruce Lytle, Dr. Richard Shemin, Dr. Douglas Wood,  and Dr. Irving Kron provide a detailed explanation for the decrease in surgeons and how the trend is predicted to shape out in the future. With the main focus of the article on the actual predictions on the future of cardiothoracic surgeons and their availability, this is a very interesting article that can help educate the next inspiring generations of cardiothoracic surgeons. At the end of the day allowing us a glimpse at the future so we can further prepare ourselves for the path that lays ahead of us.

​

The article begins with explaining why cardiothoracic surgeons are currently at an all-time low. Amazingly, I myself have experienced this shortage of availability of surgeons. In the process of attempting to find a mentor, I experienced a lot of trouble to find even 25 readily available cardiothoracic surgeons in Dallas. The article explains that this phenomenon is due to the reduction in coronary artery bypass grafting surgeries begin done. As another one of the staple surgeries done by cardiothoracic surgeons, any decrease in the procedures demand will deeply affect the field. This is most likely due to the increase in surgeries done minimally invasively, which in my previous research assessments showed an insurgency in demand and promise for the future. Such procedures that allow an easier time for the patients and the surgeons doing them eventually trickle down to cardiologist. This actually cuts off the need for the cardiothoracic surgeon that is highly skilled. Because now a cardiologist with minimal surgical training has the ability to perform a minimally invasive surgery with ease. This truly shows how technology and medical innovation is becoming an increasingly important part of surgeries future but is also slowly changing the landscape so that it is having negative effects today.

​

It is predicted that in the future the overall number of cardiothoracic surgeons will decrease by 21% as a result of retirement and declining entrants. With this decline will also come the unfortunate increase in demand for cardiothoracic surgeons by 46% on the basis of population growth and aging if current patterns continue. This seems like a deadly issue for the patients and can lead to a possible higher death rate if not addressed immediately. Just due to the lack of availability of care. Not only that, the service for cardiothoracic surgeons will skyrocket for those that are even lucky enough to get a surgeon to operate on them. This could potentially make getting a surgery ridiculously more expensive than it already is. This is partially good news for aspiring cardiothoracic surgeons like me because we can make more money, but it is also horrible for the people in need. This increase in price will quite literally leave less well off patients in spiraling debt. This could leave many without treatment and the ones that did get the treatment in grave financial troubles.

​

However, I have the feeling that through the increased role robotics is bound to play over the course of time, these issues can be reduced or altogether eliminated. If surgery automation has flourished by the time that these issues are projected to become a real problem, all the trouble can be avoided. Once all the surgeons are taken or are in surgery, robots can have the ability to complete whole surgeries with minimal human involvement or none at all. This can consume less time, be more effective, and even become cheaper for the patients. This is all my speculation because none of this is entirely possible today. But through observing the trends that technology is making today, this is a very plausible future for cardiothoracic surgery. There will have to be huge strides made in technology in the robotics and AI sector, but this is all in the works today at a much more basic level. With the current use of da Vinci machines in surgeries done all over the world and AI being created to diagnose patients with just symptoms; enough advancements in both fields can possibly lead to a promising future for cardiothoracic surgery. One that avoids all the issues that have been mentioned above, and creates a better future for all of us.

​

In conclusion, the lack of cardiothoracic surgeons in the future is a hugely pressing issue that needs to be prepared for by the medical community and the mass public. It can entail more training for radiologists, better health habits by the mass public, advancements in automated surgeries and robotics, AI, technology etc. All in all, putting in the effort right now can not only prepare us for a future with less cardiothoracic surgeons but also has the opportunity to reverse the trend that is present in the predictions made in the article. Having the ability to acquire knowledge about one of the most polarizing and worrying trends in cardiac surgery is something that can greatly benefit me on my road to becoming a cardiothoracic surgeon one day. Hopefully, this knowledge will help me do my part in starting that preparation for the future and make some of the difficulties we are destined to face a little bit easier.